fa شبیه‌سازی اثرات سناریوهای بهینه‌‌ توسعه‌ مناطق مسکونی بر هیدروگراف جریان و غلظت رسوب (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز زیارت استان گلستان) سناریوسازی و پیشی‌بینی وجوه مختلف فرسایش پژوهشي Research <p dir="RTL"><strong><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:b compset;">تغییرات کاربری اراضی در اثر فعالیت&shy;های انسانی یکی از موضوعات مهم در برنامه‌ریزی‌های منطقه&shy;ای است. بدین منظور، در این تحقیق به شبیه&shy;سازی اثرات سناریوهای بهینه&shy;ی توسعه مناطق مسکونی بر هیدروگراف جریان و غلظت رسوب در حوزه&shy;ی آبخیز زیارت پرداخته شد. این امر با استفاده از مدل </span></span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR">WetSpa</span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:b compset;"> صورت گرفت. همچنین با استفاده از روش&shy;های تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره و </span></span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR">GIS</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">،</span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:b compset;"> به مدل&shy;سازی تناسب زمین برای توسعه&shy;ی مناطق مسکونی و تهیه&shy;ی سناریوهای بهینه پرداخته‌ شده&shy;است. ورودی&shy;های مدل </span></span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR">Wetspa</span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:b compset;">، کاربری اراضی، بافت خاک، مدل رقومی ارتفاع، سری&shy;های زمانی بارش، تبخیر، دما، دبی و رسوب است. </span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">پس از مدل&shy;سازی، تناسب زمین برای توسعه&shy;ی مناطق مسکونی با روش </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR">TOPSIS</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> و </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR">GIS</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> به‌منظور بررسی اثرات سناریو بهینه توسعه مناطق مسکونی بر </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">هیدروگراف جریان و غلظت رسوب، با توجه به نظر کارشناسی&shy;ها</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> سه سناریو وضعیت فعلی مناطق مسکونی حوضه، توسعه&shy;ی مناطق مسکونی </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">با جایگزینی جنگل با تاج پوشش کم و </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">توسعه&shy;ی مناطق مسکونی </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">با جایگزینی زراعت </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">در نظر گرفته‌ و مدل با نقشه&shy;ی کاربری این سه سناریو اجرا شد.</span></strong> <strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">با اجرای مدل </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR">WetSpa</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">، نتایج ارزیابی مدل، صحت شبیه‌سازی دبی جریان و غلظت رسوب را براساس معیار نش- ساتکلیف به ترتیب </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">67/0</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> و </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">63/0</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> در دوره&shy;ی واسنجی نشان می&shy;دهد</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">.</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> با توجه به معیارهای ارزیابی در نظر گرفته‌شده در تحقیق و استفاده از روش </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR">TOPSIS</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">، </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">37</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> هکتار از کل مساحت حوزه&shy;ی آبخیز زیارت از شرایط ایجاد مناطق مسکونی برخوردار است، اما اینک وسعت مناطق مسکونی این حوضه به </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">3/141</span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> هکتار می&shy;رسد</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">. </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;">نتایج نشان داد با</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> اجرای مدل </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR">WetSpa</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> با سناریوهای</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> بهینه، ضریب زبری حوضه افزایش ‌یافته&shy; که به کاهش سرعت جریان، ضریب رواناب و دبی حداکثر حوضه منجر شده&shy;است.</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:b compset;"> همچنین مقدار غلظت رسوب معلق و انتقال رسوب نسبت به سناریو وضعیت فعلی مناطق مسکونی کاهش‌یافت؛ بنابراین با اعمال سناریوهای بهینه توسعه مناطق مسکونی، هیدروگراف جریان و غلظت رسوب نسبت به سناریو فعلی مناطق مسکونی وضعیت مناسب‌تری یافته&shy;است.</span></strong><strong><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:b compset;"></span></span></strong></p> <p align="right"></p> <p><strong>Extended abstract</strong><br> <strong>1- INTRODUCTION</strong><br> Landuse change due to human activities is one of the important issues in regional planning. Considering the advantages and capabilities of the distributed hydrological models, they are appropriate for the survey of landuse changes as well as their quantitative estimates. Land evaluation methods are used to determine the compatibility of the land according to land capability, identification of effective factors on the floodwaters potential of the basins and zoning of the basins which are essential for runoff capability. The land is used according to their potential. For this purpose, the remote sensing data and geographic information system (GIS) were used to identify the factors affecting the flood potential and zoning of the basin in terms of flood potential.<br> <strong>2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK</strong><br> In this research, a hydrological distribution model of WetSpa is used to simulate the hydrological components. This study examines the Simulation of optimal scenarios of urbanization impacts on flow hydrograph and sediment concentration using WetSpa model in Ziarat watershed in Iran.&nbsp; In this study, TOPSIS method and GIS were used to model the suitability of land for urbanization, providing optimal scenarios.<br> <strong>3- METHODOLOGY</strong><br> In this study, the basic WetSpa model inputs were the maps of a digital elevation model (DEM), land use and soil type in GIS raster format, and hydrometeorological data including hourly precipitation, evapotranspiration, temperature and sediment. In ArcGIS software, the distributed required maps for the model were extracted using the model input maps<span dir="RTL">.</span> Then, the model was implemented using these maps and data on rainfall, evapotranspiration, temperature, flow rate, sediment. With the help of the reference tables in the ArcView software environment, the spatial parameters of the model were determined in each cellular network.<br> After modeling the suitability of land for residential development through TOPSIS and GIS methods, the effects of the optimal scenario of residential development on the hydrograph and sediment were assessed. According to expert opinions, three scenarios including the current state of the residential areas of the basin, the development of residential areas with alternative low forest cover, and the residential development with alternative crops were considered, and also WetSpa model was implemented through mapping the three scenarios.<br> <strong>4- RESULTS </strong><br> The accuracy of flow simulations based on the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.67.The evaluation of suspended sediment simulations for the calibration period based on the Nash&ndash;Sutcliffe criteria was 0.63 for the suspended sediment concentration. According to the assessment criteria considered in this study and using TOPSIS, 37 hectares of&nbsp; Ziarat watershed area conditions are to create residential area. After running WetSpa model with the optimal scenarios, increased roughness coefficient reduced the flow velocity and runoff coefficient as well as the peak discharge watershed. Also, the amount of suspended sediment concentration and sediment transport was reduced to the current land use scenario. Thus, by applying the optimal scenarios, urbanization, flow hydrograph and sediment density showed better conditions in comparison to the current land use scenario.<br> <strong>5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS</strong><br> Changes in the flow hydrograph parameters are insignificant among the scenarios. After applying optimal scenarios, the extent of residential areas has decreased, which has led to a slight decrease in surface runoff and peak discharge in Ziarat watershed. By applying the optimal scenario, the amount of runoff coefficient has decreased slightly, which is a slight decrease in runoff coefficient due to a slight increase in penetration and evaporation. Also, the coefficient of roughness has increased slightly with the application of optimal scenarios, which is due to the reduction of the size of residential areas in the optimal scenarios. After applying the optimal scenarios, the flow velocity has been reduced slightly, which is a slight decrease in flow velocity due to a small decrease in the runoff coefficient and a slight increase in roughness coefficient. So, with the implementation of the optimal scenarios for the development of residential areas, hydrograph and sediment had better conditions than the scenario of the current state of residential areas. According to the results of this study and similar studies in Ziarat watershed, it is hoped that the authorities pay more attention to the crisis in the watershed and the increase in the indiscriminate and unprincipled residential areas in the watershed so as to prevent the unexpected consequences of the change before it can be prevented.</p> سناریوهای بهینه, مدل WetSpa, تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره, حوزه آبخیز زیارت Multi-Criteria Decision-Making, Optimal Scenarios, WetSpa Model, Ziarat Watershed 44 57 http://magazine.hormozgan.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-491-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 mahtab forootan danesh مهتاب فروتن دانش mahtab.forootan@yahoo.com 10031947532846004146 10031947532846004146 Yes Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی ساری ehsan alvandi احسان الوندی alvandiu_2010@yahoo.com 10031947532846004147 10031947532846004147 No gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی گرگان abdolreza bahremand عبدالرضا بهره مند abdolrezabahremand@yahoo.com 10031947532846004148 10031947532846004148 No gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی گرگان hosein zeinivand حسین زینی وند h.zeinivand@gmail.com 10031947532846004149 10031947532846004149 No University of Lorestan دانشگاه لرستان Ghasem Mirzaei قاسم میرزایی 10031947532846004150 10031947532846004150 No دانشکده‌ی کشاورزی مشکین‌شهر، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی