سال 16، شماره 1 - ( بهار 1405 )                   جلد 16 شماره 1 صفحات 87-64 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها


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Asghari Saraskanroud S, Piroozi E. Landslide risk zoning in Khorramabad County. E.E.R. 2026; 16 (1) :64-87
URL: http://magazine.hormozgan.ac.ir/article-1-910-fa.html
اصغری سراسکانرود صیاد، پبروزی الناز. پهنه‌بندی پتانسیل خطر زمین‌لغزش در شهرستان خرم‌آباد. پژوهش هاي فرسايش محيطي. 1405; 16 (1) :64-87

URL: http://magazine.hormozgan.ac.ir/article-1-910-fa.html


دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران ، s.asghari@uma.ac.ir
چکیده:   (54 مشاهده)
زمین‌لغزش یکی از پدیده‌های طبیعی است که در تحول و فرسایش اشکال زمین مشارکت دارد. این پدیده زمانیکه جوامع انسانی را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد، می‌تواند خسارات و تلفات فراوانی را درپی داشته باشد. با توجه به اهمیّت موضوع، کنترل و پهنه‌بندی خطر بالقوۀ زمین‌لغزش به‌عنوان یکی از انواع مخاطرات، در توسعۀ پایدار ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. شهرستان خرم‌آباد به‌دلیل قرارگیری در زون زاگرس چین‌خورده و داشتن خصوصیات زمین‌شناسی، فیزیوگرافی، انسانی و شرایط آب‌و‌هوایی مستعد بروز خطرات ناشی از پدیدۀ زمین‌لغزش است. لذا هدف از این تحقیق، شناسایی مهم‌ترین عوامل ایجاد زمین‌لغزش‌ها و پهنه‌بندی وقوع آن، در سطح شهرستان خرم‌آباد با استفاده از تکنیک چندمعیارۀ مارکوس می‌باشد. در راستای تحقق اهداف پژوهش، معیارهای ارتفاع، شیب، جهت شیب،  بارش، سازندهای زمین‌شناسی، فاصله از آبراهه، فاصله از جاده و کاربری  به‌عنوان متغیرهای مستقل انتخاب شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که معیارهای شیب، لیتولوژی، کاربری اراضی و فاصله از شبکه راه‌ها، به‌ترتیب با ضرایب وزنی 158/0، 153/0، 131/0 و 117/0، به‌عنوان تأثیرگذارترین پارامترهای مؤثر بر زمین‌لغزش در محدوده شهرستان می‌باشند. با توجه به نقشۀ خطرپذیری زمین‌لغزش در شهرستان خرم‌آباد، 10/820 کیلومترمربع از منطقه در طبقۀ خطر بسیار زیاد، 04/1362کیلومترمربع در طبقۀ خطر زیاد و  33/1361 کیلومترمربع در طبقۀ متوسط قرار دارند که با توجه به طیف وسیع مناطق با احتمال بالای وقوع خطر، اجرای برنامه های مدیریت ریسک و پروژه‌های حفاظتی ضرورتی انکارناپذیر است. همچنین ارزیابی مقایسه‌ای توزیع فضایی نقاط زمین‌لغزش با نتایج پژوهش، به انطباق این نقاط با پهنه‌های پرخطر و بسیار پرخطر اشاره دارد. نتایج تحلیل منحنی ROC برای روش مارکوس نیز نشان داد که نقشۀ حساسیت زمین‌لغزش تهیه شده در منطقه موردمطالعه با سطح زیر منحنی (92/0AUC) دارای قدرت پیش‌بینی عالی است.
 
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