Environmental Erosion Research Journal

Floods are one of the most destructive natural disasters that cause significant loss of life and property in different parts of the world, and in Iran, every year. Flood hazard zoning is a key step in identifying vulnerable areas. Preparing hazard maps is accompanied by challenges such as data uncertainty, spatial and temporal changes in parameters, and the complexity of relationships between natural and human factors. In the present study, the Darabkola watershed in Mazandaran province was studied due to the occurrence of numerous floods. Factors affecting floods, including elevation, slope, geomorphon, precipitation, distance from the river, lithology, land use, and land cover, were obtained and produced from different sources. The impact of each factor was weighted with the best-worst model (BWM). Each of the factors was fuzzified with membership functions, and the final flood hazard map was produced with fuzzy overlay functions, including fuzzy sum, product, and gamma. The resulting maps were validated with ground data. The results showed that the gamma methods had higher efficiency than the fuzzy sum and product methods. The gamma method had a higher accuracy of 0.7 than other methods. The fuzzy sum and gamma methods had a high type I error and a negligible type II error. However, the fuzzy product method had a high type II error and a negligible type I error. Here, several validation methods were used. The results of these methods show that the ROC-AUC technique alone is not sufficient for model validation and does not show type I and type II errors well, and it is better to perform validation with other methods, such as the Matthews coefficient, the Kappa index, etc.

Keywords: Flood hazard map, fuzzy method, Best-Worst model (BWM), Mazandaran

     

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